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http://www.dsnews.com/view_story.cfm?id=1521

Deputy Chief Freddie Mac Economist speaks at Dallas Default Servicing Conference

Amy Crews Cutts: On the Record, Predicts Possible Recession

Kerri Panchuk | 09.12.07
Economic indicators suggest the U.S. has a 50-percent chance of experiencing a significant recession within the next six months, according to Amy Crews Cutts, deputy chief economist for Freddie Mac. Crews Cutts made that prediction while serving as the keynote speaker for the 2007 Five Star Default Servicing Conference & Expo “State of the Industry Luncheon” in Dallas, Texas, on Monday.

“The economy, of course, is slowing down, and this is one of the risks that we've had for a long time,” Crews Cutts said during an interview with DSNews.com. “The Fed has been fighting inflation, leading indicators toward higher interest rates potentially as they try to fight future inflation. Now, of course, with the financial markets creating a lot of trouble for mortgage borrowers ... the risk of recession is quite high.”

Crews Cutts said a less-than-stellar job growth report for the month of August did little to ease fears about the economy's immediate future.“The employment numbers for August were really horrible,” Crews Cutts said. In the mortgage industry alone, job cuts are putting the pressure on, she added. “We've already seen roughly 60,000 job layoff announcements and real layoffs in the mortgage industry alone. That can certainly get much worse as we see some of the big lenders struggling to figure out how they're going to stay profitable,” Crews Cutts said.

What's even more troubling to Crews Cutts is the number of delinquencies lenders are experiencing on loans originated as late as 2006. Under these circumstances, Crews Cutts says it's harder to point the finger solely at adjustable rates mortgages because many of these mortgages have yet to readjust.   Duh ?

 “Many of the loans are already defaulting on early payment defaults, they're not waiting to get to that point of hitting the reset,” Crews Cutts added. “Of the loans originated in 2006, three-percent of them have already lost their homes. These are only including states like Texas and Michigan, where the foreclosure timeline is very short. This does not include places like New Jersey, which has a longer foreclosure timeline. Those numbers can only get worse, and we're already at a three-percent rate.”

Click here to access footage of DSNews.com's interview with Amy Crews Cutts. Crews Cutts appears after DSNews.com's exclusive interview with Five Star Lifetime Achievement Recipient Bob Caruso of Bank of America.

Wow!  Just bet her audience was rubbing their hands together in glee, wanting to get right back to work manufacturing more defaults ! ......   Aaargh!
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